Polarization and misinformation: the challenge of understanding and interpreting public opinion in the digital age

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The European Parliament elections last June confirmed trends that had been observed in previous years: a shift to the right, polarisation and difficulty in forming governing majorities . Countries such as Austria , France and some German regions are evidence of these changes.

These trends were also reflected in the US presidential elections on 5 November, where Donald Trump emerged as the clear winner .

This year, 2024, more than half of the world’s population has been called to vote . Although this includes non-democratic countries such as Russia or Venezuela, the results in some of the world’s leading democracies have intensified concerns about political polarization and the legitimacy of democratic processes.

In the case of free elections, these have generally been very close and it has been difficult to predict issues such as the distribution of seats or government arrangements.

New methods for studying citizen opinion

The relevance and uncertainty of these electoral events highlight the importance of studying citizens’ opinions. To this end, the OPINION network received funding in 2022 from COST, the European Cooperation Agency in Science and Technology. This consortium brings together more than 160 researchers from more than 35 countries to advance a transdisciplinary and collaborative approach to the study of the communication of opinions.

In the current context, where opinions are mainly disseminated on digital platforms, traditional methods such as surveys and polls do not capture the complexity of public opinion. Their inability to predict significant events, such as Trump’s first victory or Brexit, both in 2016, underlines the need to complement them with new analytical tools.

Traditional methods are not sufficient to understand how opinions are formed and disseminated in the digital environment. Surveys do not reflect the dynamics of social networks, where users, politicians, journalists, activists and influencers interact . It is therefore useful to resort to computational strategies that allow for the analysis of communication in these digital spaces on a large scale.

Opinion formation no longer depends exclusively on a few mass media outlets, but on a complex ecosystem with numerous actors. Analyzing millions of comments and posts on social media is impossible without advanced data analysis tools. These strategies, which include big data techniques , make it possible to process large amounts of information and better understand the issues that concern people, the sources they consult, and the arguments that guide their opinions.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP) make it possible to effectively study opinions expressed on social media. These techniques take advantage of the vast amount of data available to provide a detailed view of citizens’ beliefs and attitudes, uncovering patterns that traditional methods cannot detect.

An approach without academic borders

In political communication, it is essential to adopt an interdisciplinary approach that bridges gaps between different academic disciplines. Areas such as linguistics have been underused, limiting the development of integrated approaches. The lack of collaboration between disciplines makes it difficult to understand the complexities of communication and opinion formation in a globalised world. Although this is a different field, this interdisciplinarity was highlighted in the selection of this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics .

Transdisciplinary research enhances the study of public opinion by integrating historical, linguistic, communicative, computational, psychological, sociological, or geographical perspectives.

To understand how opinions are formed, disseminated, and impact political decisions and other aspects of society, it is essential to draw on contributions from all disciplines that study opinion texts. Social sciences, computational sciences, and humanities have developed varied approaches that can learn from each other to provide a more nuanced understanding of opinion formation processes.

Transnational analysis, meanwhile, allows for the assessment of opinion trends in different countries and regions, which is key to understanding phenomena such as polarization and the influence of disinformation and AI-generated content. Events in one region often have repercussions in other parts of the world. For example, Trump’s victory will not only intensify political divisions in the US, but will influence other countries, whether through his geopolitical decisions or decisions on global trade.

Crises, social debates and the formation of public opinion have no geographical boundaries. Understanding the communication of opinions requires experts who connect different disciplines to form a global vision.

The digital age has contributed to a more complex understanding of politics and public opinion. The analysis of talk shows, news or newspapers is complemented, and often replaced, by the study of new formats such as TikTok and Instagram. Topics such as social and political polarisation, the influence of disinformation or the effect of social media on the formation of public discourse are gaining relevance. Trump’s election has shown how polarising rhetoric and distrust in institutions can affect the democratic legitimacy of a country.

Professionals from different fields must work together, across disciplines and countries, to find solutions. In the face of an increasingly complex context, with global crises, polarization and misinformation, it is necessary to delve deeper into international and interdisciplinary research. Taking advantage of new methods and broad empirical perspectives makes it possible to address the challenges of the dynamics of opinions and protect democratic principles in an interconnected world. The challenge is to integrate scientific evidence based on data, rather than on perceptions or interests.

Author Bio: William Gonzalez Baquero is a Predoctoral Researcher. Sociology and Communication at the University of Salamanca, Bruno Daniel Ferreira da Costa is Professor of Political Science at the University of Beira Interior and David Blanco-Herrero is a Researcher in Communication at the University of Amsterdam

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